One is the most unlikely College Football Playoff contender from the SEC ranks. The other, a woefully under-discussed program that has impressed all season. Entering the year, Vanderbilt vs. Missouri didn't look like a game that all college football fans would have to circle on the calendar, but entering Week 9, the matchup earned College GameDay treatment, with both the Commodores and Tigers jockeying for playoff position.

It wasn't pretty, but Vanderbilt held on for a 17–10 win that saw both teams turn the ball over and suffer more than 80 yards in penalties. In perhaps the most impactful moment of the game for Mizzou's longterm outlook, quarterback Beau Pribula left Saturday's game in a wheelchair, sporting an aircast.

Fischer: College Football Playoff Bracket Week 9 Live Projections

Vandy moves to 7–1 (3–1) with a win, while Missouri falls to 6–2 (2–2). Here’s how the Commodores win impacts the CFP race for both teams.

How Vanderbilt defeated Missouri

Entering Saturday's game, all eyes were on these two offenses, with Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia taking on Mizzou's impressive backfield duo of Beau Pribula and Ahmad Hardy. And yet, it was the defenses that dominated this game, making it look more like an old-school SEC slugfest.

After six consecutive punts to open the game, the two sides traded field goals in the second quarter, and the game entered halftime at 3–3. The third quarter wasn't significantly more exciting, at least for fans of offensive football, as Pavia was intercepted to open play, but Mizzou turned the ball over on downs on the ensuing possession. After a Vandy fumble and a Missouri missed field goal, the Commodores finally found the end zone on an 80-yard run by Makhilyn Young. Missouri answered, with freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, in for the injured Pribula, finding tight end Jude James to cap a 12-play, 75-yard match down the field.

Ultimately, it was Pavia and the home Commodores who had the final punch, capitalizing on an incredible play by CJ Heard to strip Tigers running back Jamal Roberts at midfield. After a nine-play, 44-yard drive that also featured a near-fumble at the goal line, Pavia punched in the go-ahead score. Zollers and the Mizzou offense would threaten, and nearly completed a miracle Hail Mary on the final play, but the ball fell through the hands of Kevin Coleman Jr. at the goal line, and after an instant replay, Vanderbilt's win became official.

With Vanderbilt's win…

The SEC's beloved underdogs live to see another week as a likely Top 10 team. Missouri gives Vandy a second consecutive win over a ranked opponent, and a good one at that as the Tigers have been very competitive this year. The Pribula injury may change that going forward, but if he or Zollers can keep Mizzou afloat, this win should age pretty well.

The remaining schedule is pretty manageable as well. The Commodores may not be favored at Texas next weekend, but the line should be very tight despite the Longhorns having home field advantage, with Steve Sarkisian's team down big at Mississippi State as of publication. Auburn and Kentucky are both bottom-half SEC teams that could fire their coaches at season's end, though both can be plucky, especially on defense.

If Vanderbilt can get through the next three games unbeaten, or perhaps with just one loss, the season finale at Tennessee could be a rivalry game that doubles as a CFP play-in spot, depending on how the Vols fare down the stretch. It doesn't get much better than that.

Vanderbilt's 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 9 AP Top 25.

With Missouri's loss…

The Tigers will be deeply disappointed that they couldn't leave Nashville with a win, but they should keep their heads held high. Their three-point loss to Alabama looks better by the week (assuming the Crimson Tide don't lose late after re-taking a lead at South Carolina) and a one-score at Vanderbilt with Pribula leaving the game early and the Tigers a very close Hail Mary from pulling the upset is not one that totally kills their résumé.

Mizzou's road from here is very difficult, though. After a bye, the Tigers fans the SEC's top-ranked team, Texas A&M, before a tricky date with upstart Mississippi State and then a trip to Oklahoma. Even the season finale at Arkansas, a game in which interim Razorbacks coach Bobby Petrino could be coaching for his future with the program, won't be a walkover.

Ultimately, much of Missouri's playoff potential hinges on Pribula's status. If he returns after the bye and the Tigers run the table, or come close, his status in the Vanderbilt game may be factored in with the team on the bubble. If he's out and Zollers struggles, it will be tough treading for the Tigers to make the field.

Missouri's 2025 football schedule

All rankings listed are from the Week 9 AP Top 25.

Sports Illustrated's postseason projections for Vanderbilt, Missouri

Entering Saturday's game, Vanderbilt found itself higher in SI's projections on the strength of its win against LSU a week ago. After Week 8's results, Pat Forde penciled in the Commodores for the No. 11 seed, setting them up for a trip to face Miami in the first round. Missouri, meanwhile, was included in his "also considered" list.

Bryan Fischer had the Dores in his live projected bracket at No. 9, slated for a first-round trip to face No. 8 Oregon. Missouri was his No. 20 team following Week 8. Check back soon to see if Fischer moves Vandy after their tight win.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Vanderbilt's Win vs. Missouri Impacts Both Teams' College Football Playoff Chances.