The Warriors are off to a great start this season, boasting a 4–1 record entering Thursday.
Golden State has now fully integrated last year's trade deadline acquisition in Jimmy Butler and are reaping the benefits of a fully engaged, invigorated Jonathan Kuminga. Steph Curry is performing as expected, averaging 27 points per game and leading the NBA in made three-point shots. There have been some rocky moments as new rotation players like Al Horford get accustomed to playing in Steve Kerr’s system but overall the team couldn't have hoped for a better beginning stretch of the season.
Thursday night brings a difficult test, however, in the form of a trip to Milwaukee to play Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. Like the Dubs, the Bucks also only have one loss to kick off the year but have largely been propelled by the singular greatness of Antetokounmpo. The two-time MVP's stat line to start the year is ludicrous: 36.3 points, 14.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.3 blocks per game. The Warriors have their work cut out for them as far as limiting Antetokounmpo and the game should be quite competitive.
It also serves as an opportunity to reignite a long-running narrative in NBA circles: that Golden State would be a perfect landing spot for Giannis if the Greek superstar ever did request a trade out of Milwaukee. That, of course, still hasn't happened but appears more likely than ever before thanks to reports from just before the season that the Bucks held possible trade talks with the Knicks surrounding Antetokounmpo.
For his part, the superstar forward has consistently stated his focus is in Milwaukee when asked about those reports but also that he thinks it's human to change his mind down the road. Overarching above all these recent developments is Antetokounmpo’s long-standing refrain that his first priority is winning and he doesn’t want to be part of an organization that isn’t both capable of and dedicated to pursuing championships.
While the Bucks appeared to take a step back in that regard after losing Damian Lillard to a torn Achilles and replacing him with Myles Turner, it’s still so far so good on the winning front with a 3–1 start. But if things go sideways and losses start to pile up or it becomes abundantly clear Milwaukee doesn't have a prayer of winning a title even with Giannis at full capacity ... anything can happen. If he does wind up on the trade market the Warriors figure for a perfect match for a pretty simple reason: Antetokounmpo can do everything on the basketball floor except shoot. Pairing him with the greatest shooter ever in Curry seems like it would make for a tremendous one-two punch.
Would Golden State be interested? That depends on what happens this year. The trade for Butler seems like the last big swing by the front office to add championship-caliber talent around Curry as he moves into his late 30s. But if it doesn’t work out this year the temptation will be strong to take an even bigger swing in that scenario rather than hope matters improve next season given Curry will only decline year-over-year. And Giannis would make for a natural target.
As a fun thought exercise, let us explore what a Warriors-Giannis trade might look like given the state of both teams’ rosters, as well as the realities of the modern NBA as it relates to apron restrictions.
How apron status affects Bucks, Warriors’ ability to make trades
Looming over any potential trade possibilities is whether the teams involved are handcuffed by their apron status.
In this scenario, the Warriors face some restrictions as a result of their apron status. Thanks to their $205 million payroll and the decision to use last offseason’s mid-level exception on Al Horford, Golden State is hard-capped at the second apron with only $2 million of room below that second apron. This means, in any trade, the Warriors cannot take on more money than they are sending out. Furthermore they cannot aggregate contracts if the end result puts them over the second apron.
The Bucks, on the other hand, have no such restrictions. Their collective payroll of $178.8 million puts them at $17 million below the first apron and $29 million below the second apron. The team is therefore capable of taking back more money than they’re sending out in a given trade—up to 125% of what they send out.
In context of this hypothetical it means the Warriors are capable of trading multiple players for Antetokounmpo’s $54 million salary—but they have to get rid of at least $54 million in salary in the process.
What a Giannis-Warriors trade would look like
With the apron restrictions and money questions settled, what would a Giannis trade look like?
Butler would have to be involved to make the money work in pretty much every construction of a trade. His $54 million salary can match Antetokounmpo’s, although Golden State must shed an additional $11 million on top of that to legally get Antetokounmpo’s contract on the books. Plus, Butler alone likely wouldn’t be enough. He has proven capable of making quite a fuss when he isn’t happy and the Bucks wouldn’t sign up for that possibility without at least something resembling a backup plan. Butler could be happy in Milwaukee given he played at Marquette and would be the undisputed top option but he looked pretty happy all those years in Miami, too, and that didn’t exactly end well.
So in addition to Butler, who might the Dubs offer? Kuminga seems like an obvious next choice. He engaged in a war of public relations with the front office all summer in an effort to force his way to a different team that would give him greater opportunity. The Bucks, who in this universe would be desperately hoping for a new star to build their team around, would be all too happy to give him that sort of chance. Golden State hasn’t traded him yet because possible returns haven’t been substantive enough, but obviously to get Giannis the front office would pull the trigger in an instant.
A current star in Butler plus a potentially budding one in Kuminga is a pretty good offer. The Warriors can also offer four first-rounders to sweeten the pot, the maximum amount of picks a team can trade at one time. It’s still not a package that seems good enough to land Antetokounmpo, but the reality is that his true value is essentially incalculable. The players who would merit a “good” return for Giannis aren’t going to be traded. The only singular player on the Warriors’ roster who can come close to matching the Bucks’ star’s value is ... Curry. Who obviously is not going to get traded.
Therefore, if the Bucks are just trying to get something worth getting excited about for Antetokounmpo, they could do worse than two currently good players in Butler and Kuminga, one of whom could be better than that in the future.
The trade wouldn’t quite be done, though. Kuminga and Butler’s combined salary would be too much money for the Bucks to take back. To balance out the books and make the trade legal, the final transaction would be something like:
This isn’t to say this will happen. Various developments would have to unfold for both the Warriors and Bucks in a very specific manner for both sides to even be open to a trade of this caliber, much less agreeing to it. But if we’re to theorize, as Colin Cowherd did last week, about how Antetokounmpo might end up in a Warriors jersey, this is the most likely path.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as What Would a Potential Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade to the Warriors Look Like?.