Forty names, games, teams and minutiae making news in college football, where you don’t have to be American to love a 100-yard pick-six. First Quarter: College Football Job Jeopardy Is Spreading. Second Quarter: The Greatest Games Anyone Ever Played. Third Quarter: Coaches on the Rebound.
Fourth Quarter: The Most Likely League Championship Scenarios, and the Freshest
With five weeks left in the regular season, it’s a cavalry charge toward Power 4 conference championship games and automatic College Football Playoff bids. Assessing the current standings (jumbled) and remaining schedules (disparate), The Dash throws some darts at the board in an attempt to figure out the most likely title games, and what would be the freshest games.
SEC
Number of teams with one or fewer league losses: Eight. Alabama and Texas A&M are 4–0; Georgia is 4–1; Mississippi is 3–1; Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt are 2–1.
Games left between those teams: Eight. Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma have three apiece; Vanderbilt and Texas A&M have two; Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi have one.
Best guess at final league records: Alabama 8–0, Georgia 7–1, Texas A&M 7–1, Mississippi 6–2, Texas 6–2, Vanderbilt 5–3, Missouri 5–3, Oklahoma 4–4.
Key toss-up game: Texas A&M at Missouri, Nov. 8.
Most likely title game: Alabama-Georgia (31). This would be a rematch of the Crimson Tide’s September win in Athens, Ga. Bama has beaten the Bulldogs 10 of the last 11, including four times in the SEC championship game.
Freshest: Vanderbilt–Texas A&M (32). Combined SEC championships: Zero. Combined SEC championship game appearances: Zero.
Big Ten
Number of teams with one or fewer league losses: Nine. Ohio State and Indiana are 4–0; Oregon, Northwestern, USC, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and UCLA are 3–1.
Games left between those teams: 12. USC plays four; Oregon, Iowa, Minnesota, UCLA and Northwestern play three apiece; Ohio State and Michigan play two; and Indiana plays one.
Best guess at final league records: Ohio State 9–0, Indiana 9–0, Oregon 8–1, Michigan 7–2, USC 7–2, Iowa 6–3, Minnesota 6–3, Northwestern 4–5, UCLA 3–6.
Key toss-up game: USC at Nebraska, Nov. 1.
Most likely title game: Ohio State–Indiana (33). The Buckeyes and Hoosiers have just two remaining road games each, and Oregon has just one. So expect to see some combination of those three playing in Indianapolis. Given how little wobble there has been in the undefeated teams, an Ohio State–Indiana game less than an hour from the Hoosiers’ campus is likely.
Freshest: UCLA-Minnesota (34). The Bruins, suddenly very hot under interim coach Tim Skipper, have obviously never played in the Big Ten title game. The Gophers haven’t played in the title game or won the league championship since tying for it in 1967.
ACC
Number of teams with one or fewer league losses: Eight. Georgia Tech is 4–0; Virginia and SMU are 3–0; Pittsburgh and Duke are 3–1; Louisville and California are 2–1; Miami is 1–1.
Games left between those teams: Seven. SMU and Cal have three apiece; Virginia, Pitt and Louisville have two; Duke and Miami have one; Georgia Tech has none.
Best guess at final league records: Georgia Tech 8–0, Miami 7–1, SMU 7–1, Virginia 7–1, Louisville 6–2, Duke 6–2, Pitt 5–3, Cal 2–6.
Key toss-up game: Louisville at SMU, Nov. 22.
Most likely title game: Georgia Tech–Miami (35). Unless something gets sideways, the Yellow Jackets will be favored in their final four games. North Carolina State and Pitt are squirrelly enough to throw a wrench into the Rambling Wreck’s engine, but they look like a good bet to get to Charlotte. The Hurricanes might have to win some tiebreakers with the Mustangs and Cavaliers to lock down the other spot.
Freshest: California-Virginia (36). The Golden Bears clearly have never been there before. The Cavaliers haven’t been there since 2019, when they were nudged by Clemson, 62–17.
Big 12
Number of teams with one or fewer league losses: Five. BYU and Cincinnati are 4–0; Arizona State, Texas Tech and Houston are 3–1.
Games left between those teams: Three. BYU has two; Cincinnati, Arizona State, Texas Tech and Houston have one apiece.
Best guess at final league records: Texas Tech 8–1, Arizona State 7–2, Cincinnati 7–2, BYU 6–3, Houston 5–4.
Key toss-up game: Aren’t they all in this league? But let’s go with BYU–Iowa State, Saturday.
Most likely title game: Texas Tech–Arizona State (37). The Big 12 seems like it can avoid another four-way tie for first like last year, but tiebreakers could definitely come into play by the end. This would be a rematch of the thriller in Tempe, Ariz., on Saturday, which the Sun Devils controlled, gave away and then snatched back at the end.
Freshest: BYU-Cincinnati (38). They’ve only been in the league for two seasons each, and neither made the championship game last year.
Coach Who Earned His Comp Car This Week
Alex Mortensen (39), UAB
The 39-year-old interim coach of the Blazers, son of the late ESPN NFL reporter Chris Mortensen, had a debut that would have tickled his dad. Mort The Younger led UAB to a stunning upset of 24-point favorite, Memphis. The previously undefeated Tigers were considered by many to be the top Group of 6 candidate for the playoff coming into the game, but UAB led for the entire second half. The Blazers gave up their fewest points (24) and yards (362) of the season.
Coach Who Should Ride the Bus to Work
Ryan Silverfield (40), Memphis
The flip side of that UAB triumph was the debacle for the Tigers, who might have been caught looking ahead to a showdown with South Florida this week. Despite playing poorly all game, Memphis had a chance to at least force overtime at the end but completely melted down in a goal-to-go situation.
To be fair, the Tigers had lost sixth-year starting quarterback Brendon Lewis to injury in the third quarter and were relying on freshman AJ Hill, who had been the third-stringer and hadn’t yet seen game action this season. (Why Silverfield didn’t get him some experience in any of Memphis’s easy wins earlier in the year is another question.) But on a first-and-goal at the UAB 1, trailing by seven, this was the sequence of events:
- False start by an offensive lineman, after holding the team at the line of scrimmage for a long time before the snap.
- Pass for five yards back to the UAB 1.
- False start by a different Memphis offensive lineman.
- Incomplete pass.
- Incomplete pass.
- Memphis delay of game.
- Incomplete pass.
- Game over.
“We got outcoached,” Silverfield said afterward, accurately.
Point After
The Dash had no beer on the road last week, but did sample a good Louisville beer at a wedding Friday night. When thirsty in The ’Ville, try a Hipster Repellant IPA from Falls City Brewing (41) and thank The Dash later.
More College Football on Sports Illustrated
Listen to SI’s new college sports podcast, Others Receiving Votes, below or on Apple and Spotify. Watch the show on SI’s YouTube channel.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Forde-Yard Dash: Sorting Out the Chaos in College Football’s Power 4 Title Races.