Miami finished the 2024 regular season ranked No. 13 by the College Football Playoff selection committee, a ranking that left the Hurricanes two slots outside of the final at-large bid claimed by SMU. A late-season loss to upstart Syracuse knocked Miami out of the ACC championship game, helping Clemson reach the game, beat SMU and claim a conference champion spot, while the 11–2 Mustangs edged out Alabama and the Hurricanes.

Through early October, Miami in 2025 looked poised to avenge last year’s disappointing finish, scoring wins over Notre Dame, a South Florida program that was a favorite to earn the Group of 5 CFP spot and in-state rivals Florida and Florida State through the first week of October. The Canes vaulted up to No. 2 in the AP poll before dropping a weeknight game to Louisville, and got back on their feet against Stanford last week before their first game against SMU as an ACC foe. Once again the Mustangs got the better of Miami, and this time it came on the field.

The teams played a back-and-forth affair in Dallas, with nine tie or lead changes throughout. Canes quarterback Carson Beck threw for 274 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but it was two huge mistakes that ultimately defined his Saturday afternoon. With Miami up 7–0 in the early second quarter, Beck was picked off by safety Ahmaad Moses at the Hurricanes’ 28-yard line. On the very next play, SMU’s Kevin Jennings found Yamir Knight for a touchdown to tie the game.

The two sides continued to trade scores, with SMU tying the game at 20 with a 38-yard Sam Keltner field goal with 25 seconds left in regulation. Miami had the first possession of overtime, and what transpired proved why teams prefer to open on defense in extra time. On third-and-6 from the 7-yard line, Beck was intercepted by Moses for the second time on the day. SMU only needed a field goal to win, but still found the end zone on a T.J. Harden run—the sixth straight run for the Mustangs on their overtime possession—to win the game.

Falling to SMU on the road isn’t a terrible loss in and of itself, and Miami could reach the CFP with two losses, especially with some good early-season wins on the résumé. However, the most direct way for The U to make the 12-team field was always to win the ACC, and they may get boxed out of the opportunity.

Georgia Tech is 8–0 and will be favored to win out in conference play before it plays Georgia to end the season, which won’t impact the ACC race. Virginia is 7–1 and 4–0 in ACC play; its loss came to NC State but the game was contested out of the conference schedule. Duke (which beat Clemson Saturday), Louisville, Pittsburgh and SMU all have just one conference loss, while the Canes are now 2–2 in league play. Georgia Tech and Virginia don’t play, so they could both cruise to Charlotte with manageable late schedules. Of the zero and one-loss ACC teams, the only matchups that will take place are Georgia Tech vs. Pitt, Duke vs. Virginia and SMU vs. Louisville. We may have a very muddy ACC picture at the end of the season, but it is looking pretty unlikely that Miami will find its way to the conference title game without a lot of help.

ESPN’s playoff predictor gives Miami a 24% chance of reaching the CFP if it wins out but doesn’t make the ACC championship, and that feels generous.

With the loss, the Hurricanes also fell out of Sports Illustrated’s live CFP bracket. Check back throughout Week 10 to see how our Bryan Fischer has the chips falling.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Miami's Playoff Hopes Take Significant Hit As Carson Beck OT Interception Sets Up SMU Win.

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