A year ago, Vanderbilt—riding a three-game winning streak including their program-shifting win against Alabama—took Texas down to the wire, ultimately falling 27–24. That Longhorns team went on to the College Football Playoff semifinal. The Commodores would finish 7–6, marking significant progress for Clark Lea’s program.
Fast forward one year, and Vanderbilt is turning into the hunted, rather than the hunter. The Commodores dropped their game to Alabama this time around, but rebounded immediately, knocking off LSU and winning a slugfest against Missouri to move to 7–1 and right in the heart of the SEC’s wide-open playoff conversation.
Texas, meanwhile, is 6–2 but the vibes around the program are not good at all. The Longhorns offense, which entered with immense hype as Arch Manning prepared to take over as starter, has sputtered, making just about every game against Power 4 competition this year feel like a complete slog. A two-loss SEC program would be in solid shape for the playoff, but that would require a significant turnaround for the Horns, starting with Saturday’s game in Austin.
Here’s how Vanderbilt and Texas stack up, and how the game will impact the CFP race.
How Texas, Vanderbilt match up
Physicality will be the name of the game, especially when it comes to Vanderbilt’s offensive line vs. Texas’s defense. While quarterback Diego Pavia has generated many of the headlines for the Commodores this season, Vandy’s offense thrives on balance and Pavia is also a part of one of the nation’s best rushing attacks. The offensive line is the offense’s engine, and according to Sports Info Solutions (per Sharp Football Analysis), Commodores running backs lead the nation in average yards before contact.
The Longhorns, meanwhile, are the No. 4 run defense in the nation, per Pro Football Focus, making this a strength vs. strength showdown. Texas allows just 80.75 rushing yards per game and 2.41 yards per attempt—the second-best mark in FBS. The Longhorns pass defense is more susceptible, but only to a point—they allow a mediocre 6.4 yards per attempt and are fourth nationally with 28 sacks on the season. Missouri was able to stymy Vanderbilt’s offense for most of last weekend’s game, outside of a blown play in which Makhilyn Young broke an 80-yard touchdown run. In crunch time, Pavia had to take over the game after a muted outing against the Tigers. He may have to do so against on Saturday at Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium.
On the opposite side, Texas’s ability to move the ball against a stingy Vanderbilt defense may come down to Arch Manning’s health. The young quarterback, who has had an up-and-down season to this point, came alive late in the overtime win over Mississippi State, throwing for a career-high 346 yards and three touchdowns, but left the game after hitting his head against the turf and has since entered concussion protocol. He is officially deemed questionable for Saturday’s game. If he can’t go, Steve Sarkisian will give the ball to Matthew Caldwell, a fifth-year senior out of Auburn, Ala. Caldwell has been on quite the journey during his college football career, beginning at Jacksonville State in 2021, when the Gamecocks were still an FCS program, before bouncing to fellow FCS program Gardner-Webb (2022–23) and Sun Belt program Troy, where he started the final five games of the ‘24 season. Even with four years played at lower levels, Caldwell is relatively inexperienced. Last year at Troy, he threw for 1,608 yards, 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He is 8-for-11 for 85 yards and a touchdown for Texas in limited time this season.
If Texas wins...
... the Longhorns would live to fight another day. The biggest problem for Texas may not be its 6–2 record, but the manner in which is has gotten there. The defense has been spectacular most weeks. The offense, however, is mediocre at best, ranking 53rd national in ESPN’s SP+ metric, a mark better than just four SEC teams. The Longhorns need to put up some style points along the way, which will be tough if Manning isn’t able to go.
The only statement win for Texas so far came against Oklahoma, a 23–6 win that is impressive however you cut it, but came against an offense that had a hobbled John Mateer—just weeks removed from hand surgery—under center. With three games against teams currently ranked in the Top 10 left on the schedule, beginning with Saturday against No. 9 Vandy, the Longhorns have opportunities to shift the narrative in a significant way, but they don’t have time to waste.
Texas’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.
If Vanderbilt Wins...
... it could be anchors aweigh to the playoff. Vanderbilt is already firmly in the mix, and would cement a high ranking on Tuesday, when the CFP selection committee puts out its first official Top 25.
If there is any knock on the Commodores right now, it is in strength of schedule. Vandy can’t help that Virginia Tech and LSU both fired their coach in the weeks after their wins against those teams, or that South Carolina is one of the SEC’s biggest disappointments, or that Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula was injured in their one-touchdown win over the Tigers. Should the Commodores drop a game or two down the stretch, these will certainly enter into the bubble conversation. There is no guarantee it will come to that, however, if they get the best of Texas on the road Saturday, even if Manning isn’t active for the game. After the Longhorns, Vanderbilt faces Auburn and Kentucky—not guaranteed wins but among the weaker teams in the SEC—before finishing the year with a trip to rival Tennessee. The Dores firmly control their own destiny, and Saturday’s game is not a must-win the same way it appears to be for the Horns.
Vanderbilt’s 2025 football schedule
All rankings listed are from the Week 10 AP Top 25.
Sports Illustrated’s postseason projections for Texas, Vanderbilt
Pat Forde has Texas outside of the current playoff picture following another lackluster performance against Mississippi State last weekend. He does acknowledge that the Longhorns are just a game back in the SEC loss column, and could become a serious spoiler for the league's playoff hunt, even if they can't claw their way into the 12-team field themselves. Bryan Fischer also has Texas on the outside looking in, and projects the Longhorns to face Nebraska in the ReliaQuest Bowl.
Forde has Vanderbilt locked in as the No. 9 seed in his current playoff field, set for a game at Mississippi after Week 9. Fischer also has the Commodores at No. 9 in his live bracket, slated to hit the road for a game at Oregon. In his forward-looking projection, however, Fischer has Vandy missing the playoff with Oregon and Notre Dame taking the last two at-large spots, and the Commodores heading to the Citrus Bowl for a matchup with Michigan.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Texas vs. Vanderbilt Impacts Both Teams’ College Football Playoff Chances.