College basketball season is here, with the four-month journey to Selection Sunday officially getting underway Monday. This could well be the final season with the NCAA tournament in its current form, with expansion talk continuing to heat up and talk of a 76-team field to be implemented in the 2026–27 season remaining the most common model. For now though, just 68 spots remain, 37 for at-large teams as well as the 31 automatic qualifiers. 

Doing bracketology (a résumé-driven exercise) before anyone has a résumé does in some ways feel like putting the cart before the horse, but we can mock out what the field of 68 would look like based solely on Sports Illustrated’s preseason rankings by pulling our projected conference champions and filling the rest with our highest-rated teams. This will all change quite a bit once the games actually tip off, but if you want to start daydreaming about seeding and matchups now, here’s your chance. 

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

  • Oklahoma
  • Indiana
  • USC
  • Cincinnati

Last Four In 

  • Saint Mary’s
  • Vanderbilt
  • Maryland
  • SMU

First Four Out 

  • Boise State
  • Providence
  • Mississippi
  • Utah State

Next Four Out 

  • Miami
  • Texas
  • Clemson
  • Nebraska

The bubble is often the dividing line between keeping your job and losing it, and this year’s preseason bubble has plenty of teams with coaches who enter the year needing to win. A couple of particularly notable ones to watch are Cincinnati, which checks in as the fifth-to-last team in the field in what feels like a make-or-break year for Wes Miller, and Providence, which is just off the cut line as Kim English fights for job security there. Oklahoma (Last Four Byes) and Nebraska (Next Four Out) also have coaches who could conceivably be in trouble with a bad year, but both Porter Moser and Fred Hoiberg have a bit more goodwill built up.

* — Indicates automatic bid

South Region 

  • No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 Central Connecticut State*/Bethune-Cookman*
  • No. 8 Texas A&M vs. No. 9 NC State
  • No. 5 UCLA vs. No. 12 Liberty*
  • No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 13 High Point*
  • No. 6 North Carolina vs. No. 11 Memphis*
  • No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 14 McNeese*
  • No. 7 Iowa State vs. No. 10 USC
  • No. 2 Louisville vs. No. 15 Little Rock*

Some of the most important bracket discussions that rarely hit the mainstream involve location. Two years ago, Dan Hurley talked at length about the importance of his UConn team getting to stay in the northeast, playing in Brooklyn in the first two rounds and Boston in the third and fourth before heading to the Final Four in Phoenix. This season, one major storyline to watch is the potential for Houston to play the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight in its home city of Houston. The South Regional will play there, with Rice stepping in as the official host paving the way for Houston to be allowed to play there. That home court advantage could be huge, but Houston will be a preferred site for a number of programs so the Cougars might need to get as high as the No. 1 overall seed to ensure their place.

It’s also good to see Louisville back near the top of the bracket, projected here as a No. 2 seed. The Cardinals amazingly haven’t won a tournament game since Rick Pitino patrolled the sidelines for them, dating all the way back to the 2017 Big Dance. Their last trip to the second weekend? More than a decade ago in ’15. This year’s group has the talent to end that streak. 

East Region

  • No. 1 UConn* vs. No. 16 Colgate*/Norfolk State*
  • No. 8 Oregon vs. No. 9 Missouri
  • No. 5 Wisconsin vs. No. 12 Northern Iowa*
  • No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Miami (Ohio)*
  • No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 11 Saint Louis*
  • No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Vermont*
  • No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Indiana
  • No. 2 Texas Tech vs. No. 15 Montana*

Few felt the sting of March defeat more than Texas Tech a year ago, blowing a late nine-point lead against eventual champion Florida in the Elite Eight. With key pieces JT Toppin and Christian Anderson back and help added from the portal, don’t be surprised if the Red Raiders are right back on the precipice of the Final Four again. 

One program that has quietly struggled in March of late is Wisconsin. The Badgers, who at one point went through a stretch of making at least the Sweet 16 in six out of seven years from 2011 to ’17, haven’t advanced out of the first weekend since. That has included bad upset losses, like their ’24 defeat against James Madison, and brutal seeding draws, like their ’25 loss in the second round to a red-hot BYU. Is this the year? 

Midwest Region

  • No. 1 Florida* vs. No. 16 Youngstown State*
  • No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Marquette
  • No. 5 Virginia vs. No. 12 Charleston*
  • No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 UC Santa Barbara*
  • No. 6 Michigan State vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt/Saint Mary’s
  • No. 3 BYU vs. No. 14 Chattanooga*
  • No. 7 San Diego State* vs. No. 10 Cincinnati
  • No. 2 St. John’s vs. No. 15 Siena*

Florida was the lowest-ranked No. 1 seed on the seed list a year ago, forcing them to deal with difficult cross-country travel to the Bay Area for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight. In this projection, they’d end up with a slightly more manageable path, playing early round games in Tampa before heading to Chicago for the second weekend. 

Virginia hasn’t won an NCAA tournament game since winning the national championship in 2019. Ryan Odom will look to change that in his first year on the job replacing Tony Bennett, and he has a roster talented enough to do just that. The Cavs are a No. 5 seed in our early projection and have a manageable early schedule to get out to a hot start.

West Region 

  • No. 1 Duke* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky*
  • No. 8 Baylor vs. No. 9 Washington
  • No. 5 Tennessee vs. No. 12 Yale*
  • No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 James Madison*
  • No. 6 Gonzaga* vs. No. 11 SMU/Maryland
  • No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 St. Thomas*
  • No. 7 Creighton vs. No. 10 Oklahoma
  • No. 2 Purdue* vs. No. 15 Tarleton State*

This West region would be heavily monitored by NBA scouts, with projected top-five picks Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Nate Ament all here as well as a number of other projected first-rounders. Scouting the tournament can be tricky for NBA teams, but big showings always tend to lead to a draft night bump. 

One prospect to monitor who isn’t getting a lot of attention right now is Hannes Steinbach, a German big who could help Washington get to its first NCAA tournament since 2019. Steinbach had 22 points and 16 rebounds in Washington’s exhibition against UNLV.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Way-Too-Early Men’s College Basketball Bracketology: Preseason Expectations for 68-Team Field.

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