Every season, each NBA team embarks upon its campaign with a goal in mind. For most of the league’s 30 teams, the overarching goal is the same, and darn simple, too: win a championship. Those not in that category usually share the same goal, too: lose as many games as possible to earn a high draft pick. These are the broad strokes in which every NBA season is painted.
But there are a much wider variety of aims that fall under those two large umbrellas. Some teams hope for a title but know they aren’t quite there yet and instead want to see continued development from the core in place. Not every tanking team is in desperate need of a blue-chip prospect and instead would like to usher along the talent they currently have while shrugging shoulders at whatever losing must occur throughout that process. In other words, layers upon layers of different ways to consider the upcoming season a success.
In preparation for the lengthy 82-game campaign ahead of us, let’s take a look at one player on every team who will make or break his team’s goals—whether it’s staying in title contention, teasing out more talent from an up-and-coming young player or giving the fan base a reason to believe.
Atlanta Hawks: Jalen Johnson
Johnson was outstanding in his third year before it was cut short by a torn labrum, averaging 18.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while flirting with triple-doubles nightly. It will make things very interesting for Atlanta if he levels up again this season. Johnson makes for a good fit alongside Trae Young as a secondary playmaking hub at forward and should be a big contributor to the Hawks’ playoff push in a weak Eastern Conference.
But if he puts up All-Star–level production, how does that change the outlook of the franchise while Young trade rumors swirl? It helps that Johnson is a really fun player to watch but much hinges even beyond this season on whether last year was a flash in the pan or a breakout season for a budding star.
Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown
The NBA world already knows Brown can play at an All-NBA level. But he’s never shouldered the load quite like this before. With Jayson Tatum sidelined for most (if not all) of the season, Brown will be asked to serve as the primary playmaker. He’ll be doing so without the benefit of Tatum or any of his other talented former teammates shipped off this summer drawing opponents’ attention.
Such adversity will lead to one of two outcomes. Either Brown becomes all the better for it and proves himself as a Tier 1 superstar on the same level as Tatum, leading the Celtics to way more wins than anyone expects. Or Brown falters as the primary focus of the defense, shows he’s maxed out as an elite No. 2 option rather than a true No. 1, and Boston struggles to compete for a play-in spot. Both options hold significant ramifications for the immediate future of the Celtics, whether it leads to a lottery pick or the realization Brown can play better than even his NBA Finals MVP form.
Brooklyn Nets: Cam Thomas
Thomas bet on himself by signing a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent this summer, an unusual move for free agents in the past but one we may see more often with the new CBA guardrails. It’s a pretty good bet, too. Thomas should be the de facto No. 1 option on a below-average Nets team, which should lead to as many shots as he wants. Few players can catch fire like Thomas can, something that was forgotten last season after he missed most of the year due to injury, and it will be fun to watch him fill it up.
However, if he plays too well (or doesn’t indicate a desire to play nice with the five rookies Brooklyn drafted), the Nets may look to trade him. Which could prove tricky on its own since the qualifying offer includes a no-trade clause. Thomas is one of a few wild cards for the Nets this season.
Charlotte Hornets: Brandon Miller
The Hornets would be thrilled if LaMelo Ball stays healthy and contributes to winning basketball this season, but Miller’s development is more significant to the long-term hopes of the franchise. At moments last season, before his sophomore year was cut short due to a shoulder injury, Miller looked every bit the archetype of a wing scorer who dominates the modern NBA.
Assuming measured expectations for the team’s 2025 draft class and how lost ’24 lottery pick Tidjane Salaün looked last year, Miller represents Charlotte’s best hopes for developing another star-caliber player who can form a future core alongside Ball. Or take center stage if the Hornets decide the injury-prone point guard’s $204 million deal is too rich for his production. If Miller shapes up as another bust, though, the future is as cloudy as ever in Charlotte.
Chicago Bulls: Matas Buzelis
The Bulls have basically nothing to show for the eight-year Zach LaVine era and the future does not look particularly bright given their focus on remaining competitive right now rather than finding their next long-term star. But Chicago may have lucked into something with Buzelis. The wiry wing just turned 21 and showed flashes of becoming something during his rookie season. What is that something? No idea! Buzelis is a chaotic whirl of skills and what he’d look like if they came together is hard to truly forecast.
But there are glimpses of an interesting basketball player there, and that’s something the Bulls haven’t had in a young prospect in a long time. If Buzelis doesn’t pan out this season then Chicago will end up in the play-in, again. But if he does, maybe the Bulls push for a real playoff spot. More importantly they would end the season with a well-rounded young core for the first time in a long time.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year, Mobley will drive the Cavaliers to elite defensive numbers as long as he’s on the floor. But that has not proven to be enough to win games when it matters most—the playoffs. After winning over 60 games last season, Cleveland seems likely to use this year’s regular season to experiment with different play styles and lineups that will lead to playoff success for the first time with this core. Mobley should be at the center of it all.
If he can continue to find ways to impact the game offensively, as he did last season, the Cavs will have more options to score in the postseason beyond hoping Donovan Mitchell and/or Darius Garland can pick-and-roll themselves to points. Better injury luck would be nice, too, for both Mobley and the roster at large. But in the grand scheme, Cleveland’s hopes of avoiding another playoff flameout rest largely on Mobley’s wide shoulders.
Dallas Mavericks: Cooper Flagg
Flagg’s mere presence will help soothe a still-furious fan base about the Luka Dončić trade, which the Mavericks should be very grateful for. But the highly touted rookie could help the franchise even more on the court despite his youth. Should Flagg be as NBA ready as proclaimed and start producing from Day 1 of the regular season, the Mavericks should boast a versatile frontcourt that can dominate on both ends. Indeed, they could even be a capital-P Problem in the playoffs, especially once Kyrie Irving comes back from his torn ACL to balance the scoring.
But if the No. 1 pick goes through more traditional growing pains as a rookie, then the Mavs probably top out as a play-in team given how competitive the West will be. As long as Flagg shows progress, the season will be a success in Dallas. But how good he is right off the bat will muddy up an already muddy playoff picture
Denver Nuggets: Bruce Brown
Brown is back in Denver, where he played his best basketball and won a championship in the process. He’s set to be equally as important this year as he was in 2023, too. The Nuggets completely revamped the bench to ensure they can at least tread water when perennial MVP candidate Nikola Jokić has to rest. Brown will be leading the charge in that regard. He’ll probably be trusted to run point in the second unit and will be relied upon as the playmaking hub in Jokić’s absence.
Brown has been a bit adrift the last few years since leaving the Nuggets, however. He’s struggled to stay healthy and generally failed to replicate the same super-sub level of play he showed during Denver’s title run. The Nuggets will be on the short list of contenders as long as Jokić and Jamal Murray are healthy, but their chances will rise significantly if Brown can bring production back to the bench.
Detroit Pistons: Jalen Duren
With Jaden Ivey set to miss the first month of the season recovering from knee surgery (a tough break after his fibula injury knocked him out for most of last season), Duren becomes the biggest swing player in Detroit. His physical potential has long been obvious thanks to one of the best verticals among NBA centers and a wingspan measuring 7' 5". But the Memphis product was too often a minus on the defensive end of the court for someone with such prodigious gifts. His counting stats are appealing to the eye, but Duren has struggled to dominate the paint on both ends the way he’s clearly capable of.
Should he take strides as a defender and pick-and-roll partner with Cade Cunningham, the Pistons will enjoy core pieces in the backcourt and the frontcourt. Duren’s ascension would also play a big role in Detroit possibly taking advantage of a weak East (not to mention he’s up for a new contract this summer). But if he plateaus the Pistons will probably see another season of Duren getting picked on defensively, leading to tough decisions this summer.
Golden State Warriors: Jonathan Kuminga
Kuminga’s contract saga defined the Warriors’ offseason and there are a lot of ways it can help define the team’s upcoming season. In the biggest of pictures Golden State will be fine as long as Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green stay healthy. But will Kuminga’s discontent with the front office carry into the locker room? How will he handle it when Steve Kerr benches him during crunch time for the first time? If he plays well, will the Warriors try to trade him at the deadline? If he plays really well, how does Kuminga tilt the scale of title contention in the West?
The young forward is a true Joker in the Warriors’ deck and how his season unfolds will have ripple effects throughout the league.
Houston Rockets: Kevin Durant
It’s always fascinating to monitor Durant throughout the peaks and valleys of the NBA season, but this year will be even more so. It’s been a long time since KD was relied upon to be the engine of an offense like he will be in Houston this season. The Rockets have zero perimeter scorers outside of Durant after the Fred VanVleet injury. They barely even have any shooting outside of KD. This is as shorthanded an offense Durant has been part of since the Oklahoma City days.
How he handles it as he enters his age-37 season will not only define the Rockets’ status as contenders but will further enhance (or dampen) Durant’s legacy as one of the greatest scorers in NBA history.
Indiana Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin
The Pacers are entering a gap year with Tyrese Haliburton sidelined due to his torn Achilles, and they need no one to step up more than Mathurin. Andrew Nembhard should be able to run Rick Carlisle’s offense well enough, but Mathurin has the best shot at replacing Haliburton’s point production. The fourth-year wing has been talented but inconsistent so far in the NBA, showing glimpses of tremendous scoring ability sandwiched between head-scratching decisions.
If he can take ownership of the perimeter scoring role for Indiana, Mathurin will not only help his team, but he’ll also open himself up to a huge payday as he’ll be a restricted free agent next summer. Should he play himself into a big deal, the Pacers’ plans for contention once Haliburton comes back will start to become clear. But if he fails to capitalize then Indy will have some decisions to make this summer.
Los Angeles Clippers: John Collins
There will be plenty of eyes on Kawhi Leonard and the Aspiration scandal, but that seems unlikely to affect the team in tangible ways on the court this season, which makes Collins the next most interesting aspect of this season’s Clippers. He was acquired in exchange for Norman Powell but is a very different player, so his fit will have a lot of consequences for Los Angeles. Collins’s pick-and-roll partnership with James Harden will be a blast to watch, but how well he can space the floor will determine if he can rack up minutes next to Ivica Zubac; they could make for a dangerous pairing if Collins shoots well enough. If not, how effective will he really be in a small-ball role?
Collins has lots of talent, but his skill set hasn’t always made for a clean fit. The Clippers will need his production if they’re to contend this season and it’ll be on Ty Lue to maximize potentially clunky lineup constructions.
Los Angeles Lakers: Skinny Luka
The Luka Dončić revenge tour is one of the biggest narratives looming over the league as the new season begins. He spent the summer showing off his new diet and physique while making it clear he has moved past his stunning departure from the Mavericks and is all in on the purple and gold. But even considering the atypical circumstances surrounding Dončić’s promises, he wouldn’t be the first player to spend all offseason trumpeting improved conditioning only to show nothing has changed once he’s on the court.
If Dončić has truly turned a corner physically, if he isn’t going to wear down near the end of games or need to take defensive possessions off to maintain his energy, then the Lakers may employ the best player in the NBA, hard stop. If Dončić is still mostly the same, then Los Angeles still enjoys a championship-caliber cornerstone player. It is a thin line but will be the biggest factor in whether the Lakers will truly contend.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ja Morant
What is Ja Morant at this stage in his career? He suffered down numbers across the board last season despite appearing in 50 games, but some of that could be attributed to fired coach Taylor Jenkins’s game plan that Morant was reportedly unhappy with. Even so, Morant didn’t really work on any of his weaknesses and dealt with myriad injury issues yet again—which have already popped up this season as Morant missed preseason action with a sprained ankle.
A few years ago Morant was tabbed as the next high-flying point guard a contender could build around. Now it’s unclear if the Grizzlies can rely on him to be a leading man in that manner. How he performs under new coach Tuomas Iisalo will reveal not only Morant’s place in the league, but also his standing in Memphis as well. If the latter turns out shaky, then Morant’s future could become a hot topic very quickly.
Miami Heat: Nikola Jović
Until a few weeks ago this segment was probably about Norman Powell, acquired over the offseason from the Clippers for a pittance. But then Jović got handed a $62.4 million extension last month and the spotlight suddenly shifted. An annual salary of roughly $15 million for a player who averaged a career-high 10.7 points per game last year is difficult to comprehend. The question then becomes if Pat Riley sees something in Jović we don’t, or if Miami just wanted a tradeable contract on the books.
It’s probably a mixture of both, but Jović needs to show a lot on the court, and quickly, in order to prove his price tag was anything other than cap maneuvering. Given a complete lack of decent prospects on the roster, a pop from Jović would be a welcome sight in Miami. Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo can only carry the team so far.
Milwaukee Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The Bucks have long gone as far as Antetokounmpo can carry them but this year there will be many eyes on Milwaukee and the Greek Freak. In the lead-up to the new season there have been a few reports questioning Antetokounmpo’s long-term commitment to the franchise, which the superstar has not exactly shot down; he said he’s invested in this team but it would only be “human” to change his mind down the line.
After losing Damian Lillard and adding Myles Turner, the Bucks’ title chances are murky and if Antetokounmpo can’t propel them to a multitude of wins in a weak East, anything can happen. Antetokounmpo has the capability to single-handedly alter the championship landscape this season in a way few other players ever have, and just about everyone can’t wait to find out if he does.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards
The Timberwolves have a few issues with their roster construction, particularly in the backcourt where Minnesota will rely on 38-year-old Mike Conley and 20-year-old Rob Dillingham to a concerning degree. But if Edwards can continue his ascent to one of the five best players in the NBA and a true contender for MVP, those problems won’t matter.
Nobody seems more poised to leap into that upper echelon of MVP contention than Edwards after he added volume three-point shooting to his game last season and should improve as a scorer this season. On top of all that his game is very appealing to the eye and extremely fun to watch. The Wolves can’t make many changes to the roster due to second apron restrictions so how high Edwards can fly will determine the heights the team as a whole can reach this year and inform the front office what kind of retooling might be required next summer.
New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson
It’s always Williamson as the big wild card in the Big Easy, but more rides on this season than ever. Not only is Williamson’s status as a franchise player teetering on the brink after another injury-plagued campaign last year, the new Pelicans front office made big moves this offseason with the assumption their star would be healthy; New Orleans added Jordan Poole and traded an unprotected 2026 pick for a stretch big in Derik Queen who can play next to Williamson.
If the high-flying star is healthy then all those pieces have a chance to click and the Pelicans could prove feisty in the bottom half of the West playoff bracket. If it’s another season of poor conditioning and lingering injuries for Williamson, things could fall apart very quickly for the franchise and his future will be very much in doubt.
New York Knicks: Mikal Bridges
No one has the chance to benefit most from the Knicks’ coaching change than Bridges. New coach Mike Brown should bring a more cohesive offensive system to New York after last year consisted of everybody standing around while Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns made something happen. Bridges has historically been a good shooter but his midrange is just as much a weapon as his spot-up shooting; taking advantage of that versatility will help the team and Bridges’s own numbers.
In the broader sense Bridges led the NBA in minutes last season and still maintained elite defensive play. He’s an iron man but it seems likely he’d benefit quite a bit from fewer minutes per game, which the departure of Tom Thibodeau all but guarantees. All that adds up to the possibility that Bridges can be more effective than the fourth wheel he was last season, which could make for quite a big difference when the postseason arrives.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Chet Holmgren
Last season marked Jalen Williams’s breakout year from good to great player and it’s quite possible he continues to rise up the ranks of NBA wings. But a breakout from Holmgren would make the Thunder nearly unbeatable this season. The fourth-year center is already uniquely talented as a serious threat from deep with elite rim protection skills, which helped him make an indelible mark on OKC’s championship run even though he missed 50 games.
A healthier campaign and continued improvement from the 23-year-old could result in the Thunder rostering three players who can realistically compete for All-NBA slots on an annual basis. That would be massive for this year’s title race and the next few as well. The Thunder are already the best team in the NBA. How much higher could a Holmgren jump propel them?
Orlando Magic: Desmond Bane
The Magic gave up an enormous amount of draft capital to acquire Bane, sending four first-round picks to the Grizzlies for his talents. So he’d better deliver. And it seems quite likely he will. Bane is a very good spot-up shooter but hasn’t gotten many of those attempts lately as he was pressed into primary ballhandling duties amidst a sea of injuries in Memphis. He should feast on such attempts in Orlando playing off Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner’s slashing capabilities.
Even outside of the substantial investment the franchise made in Bane, he’s incredibly important as the team’s only good shooter. He’ll need to be available and hitting his shots for the Magic to work as constructed this season. Should that come to pass, Orlando will be very dangerous.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid’s knee
Who else? The 76ers’ season, and this era of Philadelphia basketball, rides almost entirely upon Embiid and his health. Calling the MVP center a shell of his former self last season would be generous; he played in only 19 games and could barely move. Which doesn’t inspire much hope for how this year might go. But if Embiid is healthy enough to play 50 or so games, and if he more closely resembles the elite two-way center we know he can be, then Philly will be very much alive in this year’s East. In fact, if Paul George is similarly healthy and VJ Edgecombe provides fun rookie chaos, they could morph into a contender.
But if either of those two scenarios fails to become reality, the Sixers are in deep trouble as a team with a messy cap sheet and multiple aging, injury-prone stars. It’s a dramatic swing of outcomes depending on one player but that’s the situation the 76ers are in this year.
Phoenix Suns: Jalen Green
The Suns are in a bit of a retooling stage and no player on the roster has the chance to swing this season like Green. Acquired in the Kevin Durant trade, the fifth-year guard is an electrifying presence on some nights and the most frustrating player in the NBA on others. His wild inconsistency is why the Rockets were happy to throw him into the KD trade. But if Phoenix can solve those issues, he’s talented enough to be an All-Star.
Given the complete lack of direction for the Suns after the catastrophic failure of the Big Three era, watching Green reach his potential would be a much-needed light in the darkness—and possibly a reason for Devin Booker to stick around despite the fire-from-the-hip nature of Mat Ishbia’s ownership thus far.
Portland Trail Blazers: Deni Avdija
It’s somewhat unclear what the Blazers are trying to accomplish this season after trading young scorer Anfernee Simons for grizzled defender Jrue Holiday and paying Damian Lillard nearly $15 million to rehab at team facilities. But Avdija will be in the middle of it, one way or another. The sixth-year forward was outstanding to end last season, stuffing the stat sheet while putting up good scoring numbers to pair with very stingy defense. Every franchise is desperately searching for that kind of wing to add to their roster.
If Avdija’s ascent continues, the Blazers will have a good player to build around and something resembling an identity, both of which have been serious works in progress this decade.
Sacramento Kings: Domantas Sabonis
If the Blazers’ plan is unclear, the Kings’ plan is a complete mystery. It’s impossible to understand what Sacramento thinks will unfold this season with a roster built around Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Sabonis. But of them all Sabonis has the biggest swing effect on the season. The Kings were terrible in the 12 games he missed last season and his production remains elite for a big man. If he puts up another All-NBA-caliber season by recording ludicrous rebounding totals and grinding his way to big scoring nights, the Kings will win some games and present a cohesive lineup each night.
But if he underwhelms—or, more likely, the front office slaps him on the trade block in another misguided attempt to improve the roster—Sacramento’s season is pretty much a wash.
San Antonio Spurs: Victor Wembanyama
As long as Wembanyama is healthy, the Spurs are playoff contenders. They aren’t quite championship contenders yet but they could be if Wemby really shows out. But the priority in San Antonio is to ensure Wembanyama is as healthy as can be and won’t be suffering from any lingering effects from the blood clot issue that ended his sophomore campaign.
Assuming both of those things remain true, everybody can sit back and watch as the 7' 5" Frenchman attempts to reach his enormous potential. If he makes big strides in that regard this season then the Spurs will introduce themselves as looming figures in the championship landscape for many years to come.
Toronto Raptors: Brandon Ingram
The Raptors gave Ingram a $120 million extension without ever seeing him on the court in Toronto, which means his play this season will be crucial indeed. In theory the former All-Star provides a complementary wing presence and a serious scoring threat alongside Scottie Barnes that the young star has yet to experience in Toronto. If Ingram delivers on that promise then the Raptors have a well-rounded frontcourt for the next few years and can rest easy knowing they are providing the spacing Barnes needs to thrive.
However, Ingram’s injury issues mean there are a lot of ways his first year as a Raptor could go poorly. He’s missed at least 25 games in three of the last four years and appeared in only 18 contests last season. If that trend continues the Raptors have nobody to replace what he brings to the table, setting the scene for another incredibly average season up north.
Utah Jazz: Ace Bailey
The Jazz really need someone to build around. Lauri Markkanen is a uniquely talented player for his size but Utah has been intentionally tanking for three years to acquire another blue-chipper who can be a future franchise player. So far that player hasn’t been found, but Bailey represents the best hope yet. The messiness of his predraft process aside, Bailey is a great prospect. He’s an otherworldly scorer when he starts to cook and represents the most exciting player to don Jazz colors since Donovan Mitchell. If he shows signs he can take advantage of his enormous potential then Utah’s future changes completely. But any long-term struggles like recent Jazz draft picks and the franchise is back at square one.
Washington Wizards: Bilal Coulibaly
Like the Jazz, the Wizards are in the midst of a multiyear tank job and are still searching for a player to build around for the future. At this stage, Coulibaly has shown the most potential to become that player. More relevant to this season’s interest, he is on the verge of becoming a winning player. Coulibaly still isn’t elite at one thing in particular but has become pretty good at all sorts of things. His jumper remains a work in progress, but he took big strides last season as a player, learning to take advantage of his enormous wingspan defensively and how to impact the game in ways beyond scoring.
Putting the ball in the hoop remains the most important NBA skill to learn and Coulibaly isn’t close to a finished product in that regard, but he’s showing glimpses of becoming a useful do-everything wing who makes his mark every night even if he isn’t filling it up. It’s the biggest show of progress any Wizards player has made in several years, so Coulibaly is worth watching.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The One Player Your NBA Team Can’t Afford to Get Wrong This Season.