The Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers opened this season with very different projections—truth be told, we picked Toronto to finish last in the AL East—and yet here we are with the Jays set to host the defending champion Dodgers to start the 2025 World Series.
Despite the Jays proving the doubters wrong and earning the American League’s No. 1 seed, while the Dodgers never truly kicked into second gear during the regular season en route to the NL’s No. 3 seed, Los Angeles is heavily favored to win a second straight title. The Dodgers marched through their side of the bracket with a 9–1 record, including a sweep over the Brewers in the NLCS, while the Blue Jays had to win two elimination games against the Mariners in the ALCS to return to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1993.
Can the Jays keep defying expectations or will the Dodgers become MLB’s first repeat champions since 2000? Below our staff makes our World Series picks, identifies x-factors and more.
1. What’s the biggest x-factor for the Dodgers to win?
Tom Verducci: Starting pitching. The Dodgers limited the Brewers to a .118 average in the NLCS, the lowest of any series of at least three games. They have a ton of swing-and-miss stuff, especially curveballs and changeups. The extra rest is even more helpful for max-effort pitchers this time of year. Please spare me the talk of rust. It is so overrated in today’s game.
Stephanie Apstein: Can the Dodgers’ bullpen hold on? This season, the team got 3.2 WAR (ninth in baseball) from its starting pitchers. From the bullpen it got -6.4 WAR, second-worst. That disparity has been magnified this postseason, as L.A. starters have a 1.40 ERA and L.A. relievers have a 4.88. Roki Sasaki’s emergence has plugged a major hole, but at some point, another reliever is going to have to get some outs.
Nick Selbe: If the Dodgers’ starting pitchers replicate what they did in the NLCS, this will be a short series. But if that group is merely very good rather than excellent, then Dave Roberts will need more than just one relief pitcher (Roki Sasaki) he trusts in high-leverage spots. For that reason, I’ll say one of Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen or Anthony Banda is the biggest x-factor for Los Angeles.
Will Laws: The bullpen beyond Roki Sasaki—especially now that top lefty Alex Vesia is away from the team to deal with a personal matter. Blake Treinen and Emmet Sheehan have combined to give up five runs on 11 hits and four walks in seven postseason innings. Anthony Banda and Jack Dreyer may have to step up in higher-leverage situations than they typically pitch in.
2. What's the biggest x-factor for the Blue Jays to win?
TV: Staying away from chase swings and hammering pitches when the Dodgers do come into the zone. Quality at-bats is their forte. The single most important matchup is the pitching staff with the second-lowest strikeout rate in MLB (and it’s up in the postseason) against the hitting group with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. The Jays won the ALCS because they put the ball in play and turned over the lineup far better than Seattle. If they can do that here, they can wear down the Dodgers’ starters and have a path to victory, especially because Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage have the stuff to shut down the Dodgers.
SA: Can they get Shohei Ohtani out? Before Game 4 of the NLCS, postseason opponents had done a reasonable job of that, mostly by throwing lefties at him and making sure he almost never saw a reliever twice. But all the Blue Jays’ starters and all their best relievers are right-handed. It will be interesting to see if they can keep him quiet.
NS: The Blue Jays got phenomenal production from the bottom third of their lineup during their ALCS triumph over Seattle. If guys like Ernie Clement, Andrés Giménez and Addison Barger can stay hot, then Toronto will pose a much bigger threat to this Dodgers pitching staff than Milwaukee did.
WL: Perhaps an obvious one, but I’ll go with Bo Bichette. If he can manage to return from his injured knee and play second base in place of Isiah-Kiner Falefa, who’s been the closest thing to an automatic out in Toronto’s postseason lineup, the Jays’ lineup—which ranked fourth in MLB in wRC+ and runs scored—will be close to full strength.
3. Who, aside from overwhelming favorite Shohei Ohtani, do you like to be named World Series MVP?
TV: Blake Snell. The dude is on an all-time great postseason run. He’s fresh and he will be making his fourth straight start on at least five days of rest. He is leaning into his changeup much more this postseason, which seems unfair for a guy who has hasn’t yielded a hit with his past 57 curveballs and is throwing harder than he has all year.
SA: Is Vladdy Guerrero a less obvious pick? If the Blue Jays win, it will be because he did something insane. Or several somethings, more likely. And I think there’s a good chance of that.
NS: In a Dodgers win, give me Teoscar Hernández. The former Blue Jay tends to make his hits count, as he has two game-tying or go-ahead homers this postseason. If the Blue Jays pull off the upset, a down-ballot candidate I like is Addison Barger, who’s gotten hot at the right time throughout the playoffs.
WL: Snell. Let’s say the Dodgers win in five, giving him two opportunities to pitch, and he performs similarly to how he has in his previous three playoff starts (21 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 28 K). If Los Angeles’s offensive production is fairly spread out, and/or Ohtani doesn’t star as a two-way player, the all-time leader in strikeout rate (11.2 K/9) will be in good position to claim MVP honors along with his first World Series ring.
4. Give a bold prediction for the series.
TV: The first team to score three runs wins each game. Look for defense and baserunning to be highlighted in low-scoring, tight games.
SA: Ohtani has a better game than he did in Game 4 of the NLCS. That’s pretty bold, since it was the greatest game in the history of this and most other sports. But he’ll get to face some righties this series and he seems to have sorted something out at the plate. And because why not?
NS: Given how little faith the general baseball-viewing world seems to have in the Blue Jays, is it considered bold to say this series will last at least six games? The Dodgers have managed to get this far without having to lean on their shaky group of bullpen arms too much. I think Toronto’s lineup is deep enough to chase opposing starters earlier than the Brewers were able to, and will win at least a couple high-scoring games.
WL: The Dodgers have averaged 2.8 runs allowed so far in these playoffs and have allowed a single run in each of their last five games. But I think the Blue Jays will score at least three runs in every game: Los Angeles is low on left-handed pitchers at the moment, and all of Toronto’s right-handed hitters are just about as good against same-handed pitchers as they are against southpaws (absent Ernie Clement, who should only start against lefties). The Jays led the league in batting average (.266) and on-base percentage (.332) against righties.
5. What's your winner pick?
TV: Dodgers in six.
SA: Dodgers in six. I just think they're deeper, and their starting pitching is going to balance out that leaky bullpen.
NS: Dodgers in six.
WL: Dodgers in five. At full strength and firing on all cylinders, Los Angeles looks like the team we all imagined before the season.
More MLB on Sports Illustrated
This article was originally published on www.si.com as World Series Roundtable: Expert Predictions, MVP Picks, X-Factors.